Twenty bonus seats were awarded to the party winning the most votes and one bonus seat per half a percent between 25% and 40%. Three far-right parties cleared the 3% threshold. The conservative governing New Democracy (ND) won 40.6% (down 0.2% from May), the left-wing Syriza 17.8% (down 2.2%), the centre-left PASOK 11.8% (up 0.4%) and the Communists 7.7% (up 0.5%). National PR with a 3% threshold was used, but with a bonus seat system that had been removed at the May election. Second Greek election another disaster for leftĪfter no party won a majority in the May Greek election, a second election was held June 25. The Māori party are potential kingmakers with a recent Morgan poll giving them a record 7%, and they can avoid the 5% threshold by winning a Māori-only seat. While the left parties had a boost in support after Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as Labour leader and PM in January, that boost has faded. With three months until the October 14 election, current polling suggests that the conservative National and right-wing ACT are leading the governing Labour and the Greens.
New Zealand uses national PR to elect its 120 parliamentarians with a 5% threshold that is waived if a party wins a single-member seat. The next German election is due by October 2025. And in Germany the far-right AfD has been surging in the polls recently after the centre-left SPD, Greens and pro-business FDP formed a government following the September 2021 election.
Polling indicates the conservative People’s Party and far-right Vox are leading the Socialists and Sumar by single digit margins.Ī win for the right in Spain would make it the second major European country to fall to the right after Italy last year. Podemos is running at this election as Sumar. The Senate is elected using First Past the Post, with each mainland region getting four seats and islands one to three seats.Īt the November 2019 election, the centre-left Socialists formed a governing coalition with the left-wing Podemos that was supported by regionalists. This system favours larger parties over the results using national PR. Higher-population regions are assigned more seats, so Madrid has 37 seats. In the Congress, proportional representation (PR) by region is used with a 3% threshold for each region. These by-elections will be the first since February, and the first in a Conservative-held seat since June 2022 (when they lost two seats).Īt the July 23 Spanish election, all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 of the 266 seats in the Senate will be up for election. The Lib Dems had huge swings in their favour at by-elections earlier this term. Seat polls give Labour an eight-point lead in Uxbridge and a 12-point lead in Selby. Labour’s lead has increased since Johnson’s resignation. In national polls, Labour currently has about a 20-point lead over the Conservatives, in contrast to the 11.5-point Conservative win in 2019. These large seat wins were from overall vote shares at the 2019 election of 43.6% Conservative, 32.1% Labour and 11.6% Lib Dems. They won Selby by 60.3-24.6 over Labour with 8.6% Lib Dems. In Somerton, MP David Warburton resigned owing to allegations of sexual harassment.Īt the 2019 election, the Conservatives won Somerton by 55.8-26.2 over the Lib Dems with 12.9% Labour and 5.1% Greens. In Selby, MP Nigel Adams resigned in protest at Johnson’s ouster. By-elections will occur in Uxbridge and two other Conservative-held seats on July 20: Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome. Johnson won his former seat of Uxbridge at the December 2019 election by a 52.6-37.6 margin over Labour with 6.3% for the Liberal Democrats. In this June 21 article for The Conversation that was mainly about Donald Trump’s post-indictment US polls, I said Johnson resigned as he would have been forced out by a recall petition after an unfavourable report from the privileges committee. īoris Johnson resigned from the UK House of Commons on June 9. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally.
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